Oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance on a millennial timescale

As many of you know we will have Valentina on our Youtube channel to discuss this paper!

The article has been accepted and can be found on Nature.com Oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance on a millennial timescale

The Quick result for those not keen to the science, is that the next Modern grand minimum of solar activity is upon us in 2020–2055.

This paper also shows the AGW alarmist out there how warming is NATURAL!!! 

Top plot: the close-up view of the oscillations of the baseline magnetic field (dark blue curve) in the current and past millennia with a minimum occurring during Maunder Minimum (MM). The irradiance curve (magenta line) presented from Krivova and Solanki27,28 overplotted on the summary curve of magnetic field (light blue curve)6. Note the irradiance curve is slightly reduced in magnitude in the years 0–1400 to avoid messy curves. The dark rectangle indicates the position of MM coinciding with the minimum of the current baseline curve and the minimum of the solar irradiance27,28. The scale of the baseline variations are shown on the left hand side of Y axis, the scale of the summary curve – on the right hand side. Bottom plot: variations of the Earth temperature for the past 140 years derived by Akasofu26 with the solid dark line showing the baseline increase of the temperature, blue and red areas show natural oscillations of this temperature caused by combined terrestrial causes and solar activity. The increase of terrestrial temperature is defined by 0.5 °C per 100 years26.

We are excited to break down the new findings for everyone!  I am guessing either this week or next week since we both have quite a lot going on.

Here is the ABSTRACT:

Recently discovered long-term oscillations of the solar background magnetic field associated with double dynamo waves generated in inner and outer layers of the Sun indicate that the solar activity is heading in the next three decades (2019–2055) to a Modern grand minimum similar to Maunder one. On the other hand, a reconstruction of solar total irradiance suggests that since the Maunder minimum there is an increase in the cycle-averaged total solar irradiance (TSI) by a value of about 1–1.5 Wm−2 closely correlated with an increase of the baseline (average) terrestrial temperature. In order to understand these two opposite trends, we calculated the double dynamo summary curve of magnetic field variations backward one hundred thousand years allowing us to confirm strong oscillations of solar activity in regular (11 year) and recently reported grand (350–400 year) solar cycles caused by actions of the double solar dynamo. In addition, oscillations of the baseline (zero-line) of magnetic field with a period of 1950 ± 95 years (a super-grand cycle) are discovered by applying a running averaging filter to suppress large-scale oscillations of 11 year cycles. Latest minimum of the baseline oscillations is found to coincide with the grand solar minimum (the Maunder minimum) occurred before the current super-grand cycle start. Since then the baseline magnitude became slowly increasing towards its maximum at 2600 to be followed by its decrease and minimum at ~3700. These oscillations of the baseline solar magnetic field are found associated with a long-term solar inertial motion about the barycenter of the solar system and closely linked to an increase of solar irradiance and terrestrial temperature in the past two centuries. This trend is anticipated to continue in the next six centuries that can lead to a further natural increase of the terrestrial temperature by more than 2.5 °C by 2600.

READ HERE: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45584-3

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