The numbers are in and temperatures dropped from +0.76 C to +0.48 C (March 2020)! That was the 12th largest drop in tropospheric temperature out of the 495 months of the satellite record. In comparison, we’ve seen this before. Now before you go on and think that the shut down worldwide was enough to drop in C02 to contribute, I’d like to point out a few things.
First, lets address the “this has happened before”. Late 2019 into 2020 we started to see a rise in temperatures. Now mind you we experienced a weak to moderate El Nino that has a factor in this. Warmer ocean temps will also result in warmer surface temps. If you remember back in 2015 we also had a moderate to strong El Nino that lead to warmer temps from December 2015 through April 2016. December 2015 +0.47 C, January 2016 +0.56 C , February 2016 +0.86 C , March 2016 +0.77 C , April 2016 +0.73 C , May 2016 +0.54 C and dropped even more by June 2016 coming in at +0.34 C . Now lets compare it to this past December 2019 through March of 2020. December 2019 +0.56 C , January 2020 +0.57 C , February 2020 +0.76 C and March 2020 coming in at +0.48 C. This past El Nino was weaker and that is the reason we don’t see these 2019/2020 values as high. Also, you have to figure in that the earths tilt was at its closest point
to the sun on January 5,2020.
The stronger El Nino in 2015 gave us higher values for a longer period of time. There is a clear pattern here to compare and so I say history repeats itself. At this point, we should see cooler temps in the months to come as well. Time will tell and I will revisit this theory next month.
Second, there will be an argument that lack of C02 had a hand in this.
As you can see, C02 came in at a little over 412 PPm (February 2020) How do you explain what happened in February of 2016 where the UAH came in at +0.86 ? C02 levels were over the 405 PPm range in 02/2016 but yet lower than C02 in February 2020, so how is it logic to say that C02 rise causes temperature rise when C02 was lower in February 2016, but warmer than the UAH temperature in February 2020, with C02 levels higher? Answer : C02 rise does NOT cause a rise in temperature.Dr Roy Spencer also concludes that lack of air travel could have a hand in this as well but none the less, C02 levels are at 415 PPm as of March 31st. Even after several countries shut down due to Covid – 19, C02 remains higher and we are cooling.
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