November Climate Outlook for North America

Photo credit: Tropical Tidbits

 

Here we go! Another Fall/Winter season. As you know we are in the midst of a La Nina event as we speak and the UAH (Dr Roy Spencer) has reported slightly lower temps at +0.54 C for the month of October 2020 from +0.57 C in September.

 

Is this enough data to suggest more cooling is on the way? Well that depends.. Our sun has been asleep for many months and of course solar activity has a hand in how our climate is affected. Solar Cycle 25 began in July of 2020 but has gotten off to a slow start,Yes we’ve had some minor action on the sun but it has been determined that a slow start to a cycle is usually a sign, that the upcoming SC will be weak .(as predicted) Now with low solar activity, La Nina and temps beginning their usual decline, I think we are in store for a wild winter!

 

November started off cooler and some arctic cold even made it into the lower 48. However, the next 7 days will see warmer temps across most of the lower 48 and continued cold for Canada.

 

With tempratures like this, we also will see more chances of precipitation as well as snow chances across Canada from B.C to Quebec..The snow chances for the lower 48 will be in the Moutain Northwest and Northern Plain states. Rain will accompany the warmer weather in the South, Central Plain States,Midwest and Northeastern parts of the U.S after about  5 – 7 days of dryer weather. Cold fronts after the 12th of November should develop some interesting storm systems.

 

 

The extended outlook through the 20th of November is suggesting we will get an abundance of high Pressure from the Arctic, spilling into Alberta, Saskatchewan and parts of Manitoba and will be building up some much colder air in the Arctic as well. I’m even thinking we will see a Greenland block setting up by Thanksgiving . Also, with the high pressure in place and tempratures taking a deeper dive, that also dries out the atmosphere, meaning the areas i just mentioned, will see dryer conditions . I think we will see a dominance of high pressure in those same areas. through the month of November . We stay dry in the lower 48 early this month but we will see some changes in temps and precipitation too..With that being said, that colder air will filter in from the north into the lower 48 by the third week of November and will have to watch for some potential wild winter weather!

 

 

I belive that this will be the beginning of winter making its way , but we still have a few warmer days coming so enjoy while you can and get that yard raked!!

 

 

 

 

 

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